The Muddle East

War Plans for the New Year

Major trouble is once again brewing in the Gaza strip as civil war begins to break out between Hamas and Fatah. A desperate Mahmoud Abbas has called for early elections in an attempt to stop a coup against his government.

Reports have surfaced saying that Russia is defying the West by willingly supplying nuclear fuel to Iran, they say for peaceful purposes. Russia will also supply Syria with anti-tank and anti-air rockets with the Tor-M1 anti-missile system.

This is another sign that things are not well between the two major world powers as Russia chooses sides with the terrorist state, that is currently wreaking havoc for the Iraqi government with insurgents being brought into the country from Iran and its proxy Syria, who uses Hezbollah and Hamas to keep Israel busy while nuclear weapons are being made.

Clearly Russia sees Iran as a being better and closer partner as a balance to western power.

Al Qaeda has reorganized, making new advances with the insurgency in Iraq, where it has grown stronger in the last few years to continue waging Jihad against coalition troops.

Iraq is full of sectarian violence that will have to work itself out one way or another before any government can take real shape, which is doubtful under the divisions of historic religious ideologies more complex than can be dealt with in a realistic manner.


Warnings from Israel
Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan said Monday that Israel should not take the Syrian peace overture seriously because Damascus is "more prepared than ever before" to take military action against Israel,.

"Israel's military deterrence was damaged in the second Lebanon war," Dagan told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. "[Syrian President Bashar] Assad's self-confidence grew. They are prepared to take more risks than in the past."

"Any misstep" could trigger an armed conflict with Syria, stressed Dagan. If Israel were to send a warning signal to Assad - as it did in June when IAF jets buzzed his summer palace while the Syrian leader was in residence - it would be reason enough for Syria to wage war, he said.

"Iran is approaching nuclear ability. The Iranian president wants 3000 centrifugal processors in bunkers by March 2007," said Dagan. He added that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not capable of meeting the deadline, noting that the Mossad believed that such numbers would take Ahmadinejad until the end of 2007.

Dagan explained that if there were "no sanctions on Iran and no technological holdups," Iran would have 25 kilograms of enriched uranium by 2008 and nuclear warheads by 2009-2010.

Energy supplies scarce?
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has told a Kuwaiti envoy that Iran is ready to transfer nuclear technology to neighbouring countries. This is also in defiance of the United Nations and the IAEA. As the year closes, dramatic events are taking shape on the world stage, setting up for what could become intense battles in the Middle East as energy dominance becomes the prize to be had.

The West has its doubts about Iran's true intentions of their nuclear program, believing they're making bombs, while Russia moves to strengthen Iran's hand and China helps to block us from stopping them.

U.S. scholar Marshall Goldman says energy wealth and control over export pipelines have made Russia more powerful than at any time in its history.

Professor Goldman told the Jamestown Foundation that Russia’s post-cold war power is built on its oil and gas resources. He said both eastern and western Europe have become dependent on Russia for oil and gas and that alternative supplies are not available. The recent boom in oil and gas prices, said Professor Goldman, has greatly boosted Russia’s economic and political clout.

Goldman says Russia has a long history of using oil and gas as a foreign policy tool.

“In the Soviet era they cut off the flow of oil to Yugoslavia under Tito, to Israel after Sinai, to China after Mao broke away, to Cuba, to Finland, and more recently to Lithuania because there is a dispute over who is going to control the refinery there that Yukos is trying to sell,” he explained.

Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iran using oil as a weapon, especially if they achieve nuclear status, which means an inevitable rise in prices, that alone could trigger war.

The recent Iraq Study Group report says America should hold direct talks with the Iranian regime, the same regime that has threatened to wipe Israel and the U.S. off the map. This is the same thinking that went into dealing with Adolf Hitler and Germany before WWII. There really is no need to talk to Iran as there position is crystal clear for all the world to hear, if only they will hear it.

Iran believes that it will only take one bomb to end Israel's existence, which is likely true. But they either fail to realize or are willing to sacrifice massive retaliation. With Russia and Syria being allies to Iran, any retaliation is questionable at best.

As America and her allies try to change the Arab world, they are trying to change us as well, which could eventually lead to a stalemate and even some kind of peace in the region for a time, until it explodes again. In this topsy-turvy world, inflamed by Islamic radicalization, anything can spark war in Middle East, even old cartoons.

The tension grows more intense every hour as if we're all watching an international chess game being played between teams, the diplomatic talks are near failure as the Iranian regime desires to bring about chaos in hopes of reviving the Messianic 12th Imam that their Koran says will bring about Islamic global control. This is in similar manner as stated in prophecies of the Bible, only with Jesus bringing about peace for the world after the Armageddon war.

As the chaos builds and tensions rise throughout the world, there is likely to be a final attempt at stopping it all, the same way America ended WWII. If Damascus is obliterated, we will know the end is imminent, but it will be far different.

Happy New Year!
Which is shaping-up like the old, as the saying goes, "the more things change...

Labels: Abbas, Ahmadinejad, Al Qaeda, Armageddon, Assad, Bush, Fatah, Hamas, Iran, Iraq War, Islam, Israel, Power, Putin, Russia, Syria

posted by F. Scott Melgin @ 11:07 AM